WHEN DONALD TRUMP visited Israel during his first term as president in 2017, the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said their policies were so close that “I think we quote each other.” Eight years later, Mr Netanyahu arrives in Washington for their first meeting since Mr Trump’s return to the White House a lot less clear about whether they still speak the same language.
Their meeting on February 4th will be Mr Trump’s first with a foreign leader (excepting those who attended his inauguration). The Israelis present this as a sign of the closeness between the two allies. But more than anything, it signals the urgency of the issues the two will discuss and the gaps they have to bridge. For Mr Netanyahu, in particular, it could affect how long he remains in power.
One of the potential differences is over how to end the war in Gaza. On the eve of his conversation with Mr Trump, Mr Netanyahu met Steve Witkoff, a New York real-estate investor and Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy. It was day 16 of the 42-day first stage of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which includes the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. It was also the day on which the talks on the next stages of the ceasefire were scheduled to start. Israel is preparing a team to go to Doha for these negotiations. The talks are intended to include more swaps and, crucially, a permanent ceasefire and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
The Israeli prime minister and most of his cabinet are against ending the war. Having pummelled Gaza for nearly 16 months, they say Israel can still achieve the goal of totally destroying Hamas and its military and governing capabilities.
Mr Witkoff, who is also a golf partner of Mr Trump’s, is a newcomer to diplomacy. He embarked on his mission even before Mr Trump took office, working closely with envoys of the previous administration. He flies to the region in his own private jet, setting up meetings through his New York office. In Washington he answers to no one but the president.
His unorthodox methods have been credited with securing the ceasefire deal on January 15th, after eight months of failed diplomacy. He is hailed by the families of hostages who urge him to keep pressing ahead with the agreement. But Mr Netanyahu is trying to slow him down. His aides took Mr Witkoff to smuggling tunnels under Gaza’s border with Egypt and showed him a gruesome video of Hamas’s atrocities during the surprise attack on October 7th 2023, hoping to prove to him that Hamas must be vanquished.
Another difficult question is how to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran can make enough highly enriched uranium for a handful of nuclear bombs within weeks should it decide to “break out”, though developing the warheads to fit on missiles would take at least another year. Israel is anxious to secure American backing for a possible strike on the Iranian nuclear programme. For now, Mr Trump seems to prefer the idea of making some kind of deal with the clerics in Tehran.
The one issue both leaders seem most excited about is the prospect of a new regional partnership between America, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Mr Trump sees this as a crowning achievement for his deal-making. Mr Netanyahu likewise feels that a “normalisation” pact with the most powerful Arab state would be a legacy-defining moment and cement Israel’s place in the Middle East. But he is loth to pay the price the Saudis are demanding—a speedy and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a pathway to statehood for the Palestinian people. Not only would this run counter to Mr Netanyahu’s understanding of Israel’s strategic interests, it would almost certainly mean the end of his current coalition of ultra-nationalist parties.
Mr Trump’s administration has staunchly pro-Israel credentials. The president has lifted Biden-era restrictions on weapons deliveries to Israel and sanctions against settlers in the West Bank. To the delight of hard-right Israeli groups, he has mused about moving Palestinians out of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.
But Mr Trump may have little patience for his guest’s domestic problems. He has also made clear that he wants to end conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and seeks a Saudi-Israel normalisation agreement. Mr Witkoff showed a readiness to apply pressure on Mr Netanyahu to secure the ceasefire.
Mr Trump also bears personal grudges. During the four years he spent out of office, he fumed at Mr Netanyahu for congratulating Joe Biden on his 2020 election victory and at the Israeli prime minister’s reluctance to join America in the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, an Iranian general in charge of the Islamic republic’s foreign operations.
The Israeli leader has a strong base of supporters in the Republican Party, which he has used to resist pressure from Democratic presidents, Barack Obama and Mr Biden. But he would be rash to try to play the Republican Party against Mr Trump. It has shown almost no resistance to his trade war with Canada, China and Mexico, his bashing of European allies or his undoing of federal institutions.
Moreover, some important Republican donors seem to be turning against Mr Netanyahu. One who featured prominently at the inauguration was Miriam Adelson, an Israeli-American billionaire who was once close to Mr Netanyahu but is now estranged from him. Many in Israeli politics believe she is planning to support a right-wing challenger to his long rule.
Mr Netanyahu may soon find that the second Trump term is a lot less comfortable for him than the first one. ■
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