When Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as prime minister on January 6th, his Liberal Party was as unpopular as it has ever been. A historic drubbing at the hands of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the next general election looked certain. One month later the Liberals are showing signs of life, thanks in part to a politician Canadians dislike even more than Mr Trudeau: Donald Trump.
The American president’s erratic efforts to levy tariffs on Canadian exports have triggered a surge of patriotism in Canada. Holidays in the United States have been cancelled and the American national anthem booed before hockey games. Shops have emptied their shelves of American booze, replacing it with placards that read “Buy Canadian Instead”.
Mr Trump’s offer to hold off on tariffs if Canadians agreed to their country becoming the 51st state only focused minds further. Some 90% are not interested in being absorbed. Many got angry. “The mood of the country has changed from one of confusion, to one of betrayal to one of resolve,” Mark Carney, the front-runner for the Liberal leadership, told CNN on February 3rd.
An election that was set to turn on the fulcrum of fatigue and frustration with Mr Trudeau, his unpopular carbon tax and his languid response to a housing crisis will now almost certainly be decided by voters assessing which candidate can stare down an American president who merely postponed the threat of tariffs for 30 days on February 4th. Mr Poilievre, who had mastered the sport of Liberal-bashing, has had to change tactics. This sudden coalescence of anti-Trump unity, coupled with Mr Trudeau’s imminent departure, has some Liberal supporters daring to dream that they might pull off one of the greatest comebacks in Canadian political history.
For now, reverie is the appropriate mode for such thinking. Surveys still suggest that Mr Poilievre and his Conservative Party would win a majority in an election that could be held as soon as this spring. But the threat of an extinction-level reckoning for the Liberals has abated. Polls show the party picking up modest support (see chart). Mr Trudeau’s exit seems to have suddenly expanded the pool of potential Liberal voters. “That shook loose people who wouldn’t vote for Liberals because of Trudeau,” said Éric Grenier, a polling analyst. Mr Grenier’s aggregate of polls compiled for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) has Liberal support climbing to 23.4%, shrinking the Conservatives’ lead from 24 points to 20.
If the direction of Mr Poilievre’s rhetorical fire is any guide, the Liberal most likely to benefit from all of this is Mr Carney. (The other leading Liberal candidate, Chrystia Freeland, is suffering from her decade-long political connection with Mr Trudeau.) The Conservative leader now spends much of his time attacking the former governor of the Bank of England, who will become prime minister if he wins the race to lead the Liberals. That race will be decided in a party vote on March 9th.
Read Chrystia Freeland’s guest essay on the threat Donald Trump poses to Canada and global trade.
Allan Gregg, who was the pollster for the Conservative Party in 1993, when an election removed it from power and reduced its representation in Parliament from 156 seats to two, says that Mr Carney offers the Liberals a chance to avoid a similar fate. Politicians and politics may be polarised, but some 40% of voters are not, Mr Gregg believes.
He thinks Canadians are looking for a practical centrist to the right of Mr Trudeau who can confront the threat Mr Trump poses to a country that sends 77% of all goods it exports to the United States. Mr Carney, who led central banks in Britain during Brexit and in Canada during the financial crisis of 2008, looks like that sort of person. “What they want is Dad,” says Mr Gregg. “A guy who is definitive and authoritative.” That kind of leader could run Mr Poilievre and the Conservatives close. His research shows that voters are not strongly attached to any party.
How likely is a Liberal comeback? Modelling by the CBC gives the party just a 1% chance of winning the next general election. Mr Poilievre, who has disappeared from the headlines during the tariff crisis, has quickly started to emphasise how he would confront Mr Trump. Says Mr Gregg: “The best campaign slogan ever written is still ‘time for a change’.” ■