THE BILLBOARDS are the same as before. Drive from the airport into Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, and leaders of Hizbullah, the armed Shia movement, smile down at you. One board depicts two backs draped in Iranian and Lebanese flags, the arm of the first wrapped around the shoulder of the second. Cars still carry portraits of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbullah leader Israel killed in a strike on Beirut in September. After his funeral on February 23rd, a huge shrine will be built where the road cuts through Hizbullah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs.
But look beyond appearances, and Lebanon has changed. Hizbullah’s Shia heartlands in south Beirut and Lebanon’s southern villages are reeling from the war. What remains of its leadership is in Iran, the militia’s sponsor. And the Lebanese state, freed from the militia’s clutches, has begun to function again.
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Almost three years after elections in May 2022, Lebanon has a new president, Joseph Aoun, and prime minister, Nawaf Salam. A new government, made up of able technocrats, was formed on February 8th, though it is still awaiting parliamentary approval. Unlike previous administrations, it is not subject to an effective veto by Hizbullah, with only five of the 24 new ministers approved by the militia. “It’s the best government since the end of the civil war” in 1990, says Emile Hokayem, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
The composition of the government reflects Hizbullah’s declining influence. Israel’s war, which targeted Hizbullah’s Shia base while leaving the rest of the country mostly intact, has levelled the playing field for other sects. The group’s control over Beirut’s airport and the country’s ports is waning. With the Assad regime gone and neighbouring Syria ruled by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a Sunni, Hizbullah has lost its landline to its patron, Iran, its means of rearming and its hold on the captagon trade, another key revenue stream. With hostile governments on all sides, Hizbullah feels increasingly cornered.
The hope is that with Hizbullah sidelined, the government will be able to make headway on economic reforms and on implementing the ceasefire deal with Israel and UN resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah and other armed groups. In his inaugural address on January 9th Mr Aoun, a former army boss, said that Lebanon’s armed forces alone had an “exclusive right” to bear arms. The active involvement of America and Saudi Arabia in shaping the government has raised hopes for reconstruction funds from the Gulf and fresh loans from the IMF.
Still, the new government will not be able to ignore Hizbullah entirely. Political power in Lebanon is allotted by sect, and the Shias comprising Hizbullah’s base are the largest group. The militia still has some cash to compensate followers who lost their homes in the war with Israel, though less generously than it used to. Along with its allies it forms the largest bloc in parliament, at least until elections next year. It managed to force through its choice for finance minister, Yassin Jaber. He could stymie the banking reforms that are required to end a six-year depression and unlock IMF funding after a war that the World Bank says has caused $3.4bn of damage.
The group is also unlikely to give up its weapons, despite Mr Aoun’s insistence. Though Hizbullah has lost its leadership, Israel reckons it still has tens of thousands of fighters and around 30% of its arsenal. Mr Salam, who as prime minister will be in charge of overseeing the disarmament, is “too nice” to confront the militia head-on, says a friend. He may also be too sympathetic to some of Hizbullah’s positions. Moreover, a third of Lebanon’s army is Shia and may be reluctant to turn on its own.
Failure to make progress on disarmament may endanger the ceasefire agreement with Israel, delaying the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon due this month. That may prompt Hizbullah’s angry supporters to clamour for another fight. Lebanon is not out of the woods. ■
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