THE EARTHQUAKE in transatlantic relations caused by President Donald Trump’s looming abandonment of Ukraine seemed to cause barely a ripple in the Pacific, where America’s generals and securocrats at the Honolulu Defence Forum emphasised the importance of boosting Asian allies. Perhaps, suggested one attending South Korean, cutting a deal with Russia will allow America to focus on deterring the might of China.
The surface calm is in part the result of Asian governments lying low, either because they are indifferent to Europe’s woes or because they want to win Mr Trump’s favour (or at least avoid his ire) and hope he will continue to guarantee Asia’s security. In fact, the countries most likely to be at the receiving end of China’s military bullying have the greatest reason to fear it will be emboldened by a Russian victory.
Take Taiwan. Successive governments have argued that denying Russia a victory in Ukraine was vital to dissuading China from invading the self-governing island. The notion of “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” is now all the more alarming. One opposition-leaning newspaper, the United Daily News, was quick to warn that Taiwan will become an “abandoned chess piece”. In Japan the headline of an editorial in the Nikkei, a Japanese daily, opined: “Don’t let America decide Ukraine’s fate.”
India, for its part, has pursued a “multi-aligned” foreign policy, drawing closer to America while retaining strong ties with Russia and recently improving relations with China. It may now spy an opportunity, not just because it could import Russian oil more easily but also because a fragmenting world order could give it greater influence. Meanwhile, most smaller countries in South-East Asia are ambivalent about America and are drifting towards China. For Singapore’s defence minister, Ng Eng Hen, America was moving from a force for “moral legitimacy” to something closer to “a landlord seeking rent”.
Yet the threat of China may focus minds. Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of America’s Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China’s wargames around Taiwan were not mere exercises but “rehearsals” for an invasion of the island. At the same time, he sounded the alarm over the readiness of American forces. “Our [munitions] magazines run low…Critical air, missile, maritime and space platforms age faster than we can replace them.” China’s growing collaboration with Russia and North Korea was creating a “triangle of trouble” and turning the region from “free and open” to “contested and controlled”.
In Honolulu, China hawks were divided over the Trump administration’s abrupt about-turn in Europe. Some argued that “deterrence cannot be divided”. If America lost credibility as an ally in Europe, it would lose credibility in Asia, too. David Stilwell, a former state department official, denounced free-riding allies. “Weakness in one place creates weakness everywhere,” he said. Some thought that doing less in Europe would lead to America doing more in Asia. Others worried that America would simply do less everywhere.
Thus far, Mr Trump has not shown much of his hand in the Indo-Pacific. He has imposed tariffs on China but has sought to woo its leader, Xi Jinping, perhaps in hope of striking a trade deal. His oldest son, Donald Trump junior, recently said that America should be ready to confront China’s armed forces, but remain open to talks. The president’s early guests to the White House have included Japan’s prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, closely followed by India’s, Narendra Modi, signalling a continuing focus in the Indo-Pacific.
Strategists may talk about the “convergence” of the European and Asian theatres. But military trade-offs are becoming starker as America’s arsenals are depleted. Its munitions shortage in Asia is caused, at least in part, by its support for Europe.
Yet if hard choices have to be made, Admiral Paparo was clear about where America’s priorities should lie: “If you were to choose the world’s centre of gravity a hundred years ago, it would have been somewhere in east-central Europe. Today, it’s squarely in the Indo-Pacific.”■
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