As one of Asia’s biggest air and defence shows, Aero India always generates a buzz in the arms trade, not to mention the skies over Bangalore. But there was an extra frisson around this year’s event, which concluded on February 14th. One reason was the presence of Russia’s most advanced stealth fighter jet, the Su-57. This was not just its debut in India: it was appearing for the first time alongside America’s equivalent, the F-35.
Then there was a two-day visit to Washington by India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, which coincided with the show. After meeting President Donald Trump on February 13th, the two leaders sought to gloss over tensions on tariffs with ambitious agreements to expand trade and defence co-operation. And, most strikingly, Mr Trump said they were “paving the way” to supply India with the F-35, which is currently restricted to American allies.
That only intensified manoeuvring among military officials and arms-makers in Bangalore. They had gathered there mostly to tout their wares to India, which is the world’s biggest arms importer and is steadily diversifying away from Russia as its main supplier. This year, the commercial and geopolitical stakes were especially high given the war in Ukraine, Mr Trump’s return to power and an anticipated Indian order for 114 fighter jets worth $20bn.
The Russian and American delegations carefully avoided direct contact, but in conversations with The Economist they readily badmouthed each other’s wares. After the Su-57’s aerobatic display, a Russian delegate questioned the manoeuvrability of the F-35 (which only did a straightforward flypast). America’s fighter had only been used against ill-armed “terrorists”, the Russian quipped, whereas the Su-57 was “battle-proven” in Ukraine.
The Americans’ response was equally caustic. They pointed out that Ukraine had no real air force and suggested that the Su-57’s fancy moves had little use in modern combat. They also cited the poor performance of many Russian weapons in Ukraine. And they expressed confidence that India would continue the expansion of defence ties with America that began two decades ago and accelerated after a deadly clash on India’s border with China in 2020.
A fighter deal would take that defence partnership to new levels. Although India has lately bought more American arms, including helicopters, transport planes and drones, it has resisted buying American fighters, which would bind it into a complex technological ecosystem for decades. India’s most recent fighter order was for 36 French Rafales in 2016; its other fighters are mostly of Russian origin.
Yet Mr Trump’s remarks also unsettled some American and Indian air-show participants. India, they explained, remains wary of becoming over-reliant on imported American arms, partly because they are expensive and partly to preserve strategic autonomy. So India and America (as well as several other countries) have recently prioritised joint arms production in India. That also helps Mr Modi’s efforts to boost Indian manufacturing, thus creating jobs.
Mr Trump and Mr Modi did agree to pursue “new procurements and co-production arrangements” for anti-tank missiles and infantry combat vehicles. They also welcomed new agreements to co-produce anti-drone and anti-submarine equipment. For many involved, though, the concern is that such co-production efforts will ultimately clash with Mr Trump’s determination to reduce India’s trade surplus and create jobs in America.
His F-35 offer was quite a curveball, too. The biggest Indian deal on the horizon is the 114-fighter tender, plans for which were announced in 2018. India is expected to invite bids in early 2025 and the contenders include two American firms, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, as well as Dassault of France, Saab of Sweden and Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation.
Hey big procurer
But India has long indicated that in that deal it aims to buy a large number of affordable aircraft to replace much of its ageing fleet and to ease a shortfall of some 200 fighters. It has thus been seeking fourth-generation fighters, rather than more expensive fifth-generation ones like the F-35 (which boast radar-evading stealth technology). And it is widely expected to demand that most, if not all, components of the fighters are produced in India.
Besides, some American allies, which jointly developed the F-35, might object to sharing its technology with India. And India is developing its own fifth-generation fighter. Hence Lockheed, which makes the F-35, has been pitching an updated version of the older F-16 for the anticipated Indian fighter tender, and offering to make much of it in India. (Boeing’s hopes rest primarily on an updated version of the F-15, also to be substantially Indian-made.)
Recently, however, senior Indian air-force figures have voiced frustration with the slow pace of India’s procurement process. They point to China, which has already inducted almost 200 fifth-generation fighters and offered 40 to Pakistan, India’s historical rival. Some in India’s defence circles are now calling for it to rethink the 114-jet order and buy a smaller number of stealth fighters instead.
Russia, meanwhile, is lobbying India to do the same. Russia’s pitch includes sharing much of the Su-57’s technology and allowing production under licence in India (which already makes Su-30s under a similar deal). As for Russia’s supply-chain issues, its representatives say they will ease if the war in Ukraine ends. And they question America’s reliability, citing recent delays in the delivery of American engines for India’s indigenous fighters.
It is unclear to what extent Mr Modi was on board with Mr Trump’s F-35 announcement, though their joint statement noted that America was reviewing its policy on supplying fifth-generation fighters to India. Shortly after, a senior Indian official said it was only a proposal and any purchase would follow the normal procedure, which had not yet started. Even so, fighters are clearly on both leaders’ minds. And India has some hard choices to make. Brace for some diplomatic aerobatics in the months ahead. ■
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