On March 2nd Tajiks will vote in a general election. The exercise is unlikely to be a democratic process; rather, it will probably cement the eradication of political opposition by Emomali Rahmon, the president. His ruling People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan, which holds three-quarters of seats in the outgoing parliament, is on track to win a large majority. But the size of that majority is immaterial to Mr Rahmon, since the other five parties running for seats in the rubber-stamp parliament support the Founder of Peace and National Unity and Leader of the Nation, as Mr Rahmon’s official title goes.
As head of state for 33 years, Mr Rahmon is the longest-ruling leader in the former Soviet Union and one of the longest-reigning in the world. Ahead of the election, the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, the country’s sole official opposition party, did not field any candidates (it won just 0.3% of votes in the last poll). Last year its leader, Rahmatullo Zoirov, died, while his deputy, Shokirjon Hakimov, was arrested and imprisoned for 18 years on treason charges, all of which he denies. That was part of a closed trial which also delivered long prison sentences on spurious-sounding charges of coup-plotting to figures who had appeared to be regime loyalists.
Mr Rahmon began rooting out any political opposition over a decade ago. In 2014 the government banned an alliance of dissenters called Group 24, whose leader, Umarali Quvvatov, was subsequently killed in Istanbul. In 2015 the authorities also banned the most popular opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. It had been in a power-sharing agreement struck with Mr Rahmon to end a civil war in the 1990s, until he tore up the deal to entrench his one-man rule.
After clinging to power for decades by rigging elections and ruthlessly crushing dissent, Mr Rahmon now appears to be priming Tajikistan for a dynastic succession. The leader is 72 and thought to be in bad health. He seems to be grooming his eldest son, Rustam Emomali, to take over. Mr Emomali is already mayor of Dushanbe, the capital, and chairs the upper house of parliament. His father’s presidential term runs until 2027, and Mr Rahmon is keeping Tajiks guessing about his intentions. But, with political opposition thoroughly crushed, the patriarch has set the stage for a dynastic transfer of the presidency that will keep power firmly within the ruling family. ■