FOR TWO months a fragile ceasefire has held in Gaza. But on March 18th the truce ended abruptly as Israel launched air strikes against Hamas, the Islamists who still control much of the territory. Israel claimed it was targeting the group’s military and political leaders. Some are confirmed to be dead. But the resumption of strikes has meant a return to harrowing footage of dead children and the wounded being rushed to Gaza’s few remaining hospitals. Hamas officials say that over 430 people, including many civilians, have been killed. On March 19th Israel also sent ground troops back into the Netzarim corridor which bisects the strip.
Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, gave Hamas’s “refusal to release our hostages” as the reason for breaking the ceasefire. Hamas had rejected proposals made in recent weeks by America’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to hand over some of the 59 hostages still in Gaza (over half of whom are presumed dead), as part of an extension of the truce. But it is Israel that has breached the agreement it signed in January.
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Under the original deal, after the first six weeks of the truce a second phase would come into effect. That would include a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, an official end to the war and the return of all remaining hostages still alive. Both sides fulfilled the first phase: 30 live hostages and the bodies of eight more were released from Gaza; 1,900 Palestinian prisoners were freed from Israeli jails; and Israeli troops withdrew from most of the strip. But Israel’s negotiators did not turn up for talks about the second stage.
Mr Netanyahu, under pressure from his hardline coalition partners, has refused to end the war while Hamas remains in power, despite this not being part of the original deal. Instead, when the first phase ended on March 1st Israel tried, through direct talks between America and Hamas, to put pressure on the Palestinian group to agree to another hostage release without having to fulfil the obligations it would face in the next stage of the ceasefire.
The Americans initially insisted that Israel must implement the second phase of the truce; but they have come round, for now, to the Israeli position. Donald Trump has threatened Hamas with “all hell” if it refuses to release the remaining hostages. A White House spokesperson confirmed that America had been “consulted” by the Israelis before these attacks, and reiterated Mr Trump’s warnings that Hamas would have “a price to pay” if it did not capitulate.
Israel said its strikes were also co-ordinated with America to follow those of the United States on the Houthis in Yemen (see next story) on March 15th. With these strikes, on the Houthis and in Gaza, Israel and America say they want to prevent simultaneous attacks on Israel and ships. Israel is anxious to prove it has America’s backing to operate against its enemies.
What happens next depends to some extent on the response from Hamas. So far it has not retaliated, partly because most of its rocket-launchers have been destroyed by Israel. If Hamas will accept even an interim extension to the truce, the Americans may call time on Israel’s offensive. But most of the Israeli cabinet and the new chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces (idf), Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, favour a longer campaign involving entire armoured divisions on the ground inside Gaza, to root out Hamas fighters.
That would be devastating for the people there. They would be displaced once again to miserable “humanitarian zones”, while what little is left of their homes and the civilian infrastructure is pulverised. It would also mean a bitter dispute within Israel, where many are accusing the government of endangering the remaining hostages with this new attack.
So far the Israeli ground manoeuvres have been limited. The idf warned Gazans in areas near the border to evacuate. Deploying the divisions envisaged in General Zamir’s war-plans, including tens of thousands of reserve troops who have yet to be mustered, will take weeks.
For Mr Netanyahu the timing of Israel’s renewed attack on Gaza has been politically helpful. His coalition was in danger of losing its majority on the eve of a crucial budget vote. Failing to pass the budget would prompt early elections. But within hours of the strikes on Gaza, Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, who had left the government when the original ceasefire was agreed in January, returned to the fold.
The prime minister is also anxious to rally his base because of his controversial attempt to fire the head of the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security agency, and the attorney-general. They are overseeing investigations into close aides of Mr Netanyahu alleged to have leaked classified documents and received payments from Qatar.
The Supreme Court could block the efforts of Mr Netanyahu, who is on trial for bribery and fraud (charges he vehemently denies), on the grounds of conflict of interest. That would cause a constitutional crisis that has been building since he returned to office in 2022. His coalition wanted to pass sweeping legal reforms to weaken the powers of the Supreme Court. Protests stymied their efforts at the time. They put the reform on hold after the war in Gaza began but have returned to it now.
A renewed clash between Israel’s government and judiciary seems all but inevitable. By law the Shin Bet’s mandate includes protecting “Israel’s democratic process and institutions”. It may soon understand that to mean protecting Israel’s democracy from its prime minister. ■
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