IT IS HARD to believe today, but 18 months ago Israel was in grave peril. Surrounded by enemies, bickering with its main ally in Washington and reeling after Hamas’s attack caused the most murderous day in the country’s history, the Jewish state seemed vulnerable and confused. Now, by contrast, Israel is rampant. It is still fighting—occasionally in Lebanon and Syria, more permanently against Palestinian militants in the West Bank and once more, on an even larger scale, in Gaza, where an American-sponsored ceasefire has broken down. But this time Israel is fighting on its own terms and with full American backing. You might think that makes it safe again. Yet its renewed military supremacy comes with a danger of overextension and bitter strife at home. As its government charges ahead, it risks turning hubris into disaster.
The improvement in Israel’s security has been remarkable, and welcome. Since the atrocities of October 7th 2023 Israel has attacked and greatly weakened Hamas. Military action in Lebanon has decapitated Hizbullah. Iran’s baleful influence across the Middle East has been shattered, as its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria have foundered. Israel fended off two big Iranian missile barrages with America’s help, and struck back against Iran’s air defences.
However, the Israeli government has drawn two worrying conclusions from this success. One is that cruel tactics work. Having killed tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza, it has again withheld aid and shut off basic services, in what looks like a violation of international law. In Gaza it is preparing for a new occupation as part of what may become a huge ground operation. Shameful plans for ethnic cleansing are gaining currency. Encouraged by President Donald Trump’s vision of an American “takeover” and the resettlement of Gaza’s population, the Israeli government has approved the establishment of an agency for the “voluntary” departure of Palestinians. Since last year it has engaged in a rapid de facto annexation of the West Bank, expanding Israeli settlements, forcing tens of thousands of Palestinians from their homes and allowing violent settlers to rampage unchecked. A push for formal annexation is gathering pace.
The government’s second conclusion is that, after deterrence collapsed on October 7th, it must protect itself by creating buffer zones and striking perceived threats as early as possible. The army is attacking Lebanon, even if that discredits Lebanese groups who are working to shut Hizbullah out of power. Rather than wait to see if the new government in Damascus can put Syria together again, Israel is bombing it. That same logic could well lead to a pre-emptive strike against Iran, to prevent it acquiring a nuclear weapon. Having been softened up by Israeli bombing, the Islamic Republic’s defences are weaker than they have been in decades.
This is a dangerous path for Israel: in the region, with the Palestinians and at home. In the region Israel will struggle to maintain military dominance if it demands too much of its own forces. It has a citizen army of reservists, who serve at moments of national peril. Soldiers who have families to care for and businesses to run cannot live their lives if they are permanently being called up. In addition, Israel still depends on America to project force. But Mr Trump is not a dependable ally—especially if a war against Iran becomes drawn out. Even if his support endures, the Democrats could be back in power in 2029 and they would be less tolerant of annexation. And last, as repeated Israeli strikes around the region lead to a popular backlash, Arab leaders will gradually come to reflect their people’s hostility. In time that could threaten Israel’s regional alliances, with Egypt and Jordan and with several other Arab countries through the Abraham accords.
As for the Palestinians, Israel cannot simply cancel their yearning for a homeland. After the horrors of October 7th most Israelis oppose the creation of a Palestinian state or the incorporation of Palestinians as full citizens inside Israel. But other options are dire. Formal annexation of Palestinian land would lead either to ethnic cleansing, or the creation of non-citizens without full rights, or to further cooping up Palestinians in tiny non-viable statelets. If those policies are enacted, it will be an affront to the values on which Israel was founded.
Overextension may be most corrosive within Israel. The trauma of October 7th ought to have united Israeli society. However, the country is once again divided. A clear majority of Israelis support negotiations with Hamas and a withdrawal from Gaza in order to bring the remaining hostages there home. They believe that the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, is prosecuting the war to appease the hard right, whose support he needs to prevent his government from collapsing. Increasingly, army reservists wonder if they are fighting a war in the national interest or in the interest of a minority that happens to wield influence.
This comes as the government is showing a distressing eagerness for democratic backsliding. It is using aggressive tactics to curb the independence of Israel’s institutions. In recent days the cabinet has endorsed the firing of the head of the Shin Bet, the domestic security agency, and of the attorney-general—both decisions are fiercely contested. The two officials happen to be involved in investigations of Mr Netanyahu’s aides over allegations of graft and other sins. At the heart of Israel’s crisis is a campaign by religious Zionists who see their vision of Israel as a country embracing the biblical lands of Azza, Judea and Samaria, as they call Palestinian territory, being thwarted by the country’s secular institutions.
Israel looks strong. But its army is tired and its politics is split. Meanwhile, the most dynamic part of the Israeli economy, its tech sector, is highly mobile. Before October 7th tech workers dismayed at political divisions and erosion of the rule of law threatened to move abroad. They may one day make good on those threats. For many years Israel depended on its American ally to tell it when to stop fighting. With Mr Trump in the White House, those days are over. Israel now needs the wisdom to practise self-restraint. ■
For subscribers only: to see how we design each week’s cover, sign up to our weekly Cover Story newsletter.